Inside Online Poker : Got the basics? Get the NUTS!

Pairs can be arguably the most profitable hands in Texas Holdem, but because they are so often played incorrectly - either over or underplayed - they don't bump up your stack or increase your tourney chances as they should.

I'm going to examine the nature of pocket pairs here, focusing primarily on their use in no-limit tournaments. I'll also offer notes for low-limit money players too, though, so don't run away if you only play small limit or pot-limit games. Every Holdem player will learn something useful.

Let's start with The Worst Play In Poker. I'm astounded by the number of players who get this one wrong. It's calling an all-in bet with a small pair.

If you call all-in rather than betting or raising all-in, you only have one way to win: holding the best hand. It's far better to have two ways to win when you make a bet: either with your bet, or with your hand. Suppose you knew that your hand was a 3/2 underdog to win - that you only had a 40% winning chance. Suppose further that you knew that if you bet all-in, your opponent would fold 50% of the time.

It would be correct to bet, even though you knew you had the inferior hand. In 100 confrontations, you would win 50 without a fight, and of the other 50, you would win 20. You wind up winning 70 of the 100 confrontations. While you can't know the odds this precisely at the table, this example shows how having two ways to win often easily turns an inferior hand into a winner.

However, if you call all-in, you're going to find yourself in one of two situations: either you'll be roughly even money (against two overcards), or you'll be roughly a 9/2 underdog (small pair against larger pair).

Do you really want to put all your chips into the pot when it's impossible for your opponent to fold and you're either a small favourite or a huge underdog? It's a ridiculous play, and yet you'll see players again and again make huge calls with hands like pocket 4s.

The 'coin flip' myth
Whenever you watch televised poker and you see someone with a pocket pair going up against someone with two overcards (such as Q-Q vs A-K or 7-7 vs 8-9), you almost always hear the announcers say one of two things: either the hand is a 'coin flip,' (meaning that it's a 50/50 chance) or that 'it's roughly 11/10 in favour of the pair.' Listen for it: it's practically universal.

The only problem is, it's practically universally wrong. Different pocket pairs are different sized favourites against different overcards. In fact, they aren't always favourites. J-10 suited is a favourite over every single pair from twos through sevens, if the pair doesn't contain one of the suited cards, and usually even if it does. You need to reach pocket eights before the pair becomes the favourite, and that's by a tiny amount.

On the other hand, if you take your pocket sevens - or even your pocket deuces, for that matter - up against A-K, you're the favourite. Can you guess why the J-10 hands do so well?

There are four main ways in which overcards can defeat a pocket pair:

>> To hit one (or more) of the overcards. For example, Q-Q vs A-K, and the final board is 5-K-7-J-2.

>> To make a straight (a single card from a pair can also help make a straight, but two connected cards stand a much better chance). For example, 7-7 vs J-10, with the final board coming 8-9-Q-7-2 (notice that even making a set of 7s on the turn didn't save the pocket pair).

>> To make a flush (very similar to the straight analysis). For example, 8h-8h vs Qs-Js with the final board coming 10s-9s-Ah-3h-8s. Notice the same river card that gave the eights their 'lucky' set also created the flush: remember such possibilities when calculating 'outs' (winning cards).

>> To get counterfeited - one of the biggest problems with tiddly pairs. For example, 3-3 vs A-9, and the final board comes 5-5-6-10-6. The owner of the 3s must play the board, while the opponent can use his Ace. Any time you own a small pair and a larger pair flops, be careful.

Because J-10 makes more high straights than any other hand, if you owned a pair of fours, you would actually much prefer to be up against the powerful looking A-K, which makes far fewer straights, than against J-10.

If you own Q-Q and are up against A-K, you are in the single most favourable 'pair vs overcards' situation. Express it however you like: 4:3, or 1.33-1, or a 57.2%; no matter which way you describe it, you are quite far away from coin flip territory.

You own this significant edge because your two queens reduce the A-K's chances of winning with a straight. A-K's owner will need a queen to hit the board to make a straight, and you have two of them tucked safely away. Don't get too excited by this information, though. Many players, upon learning that J-10 makes more straights than any other hand start to rank J-10 far too highly.

Smaller pairs
I split pocket pairs into several distinct value groups. Let's start at the bottom and work our way up:

>> Small pairs (2-2, 3-3, 4-4, and 5-5)
Although these hands stand a reasonable chance of winning a heads-up confrontation against overcards, they have several major vulnerabilities. In a game where three or more players see the flop, they usually need to make a set to win. Small pairs are also the most vulnerable to getting counterfeited. The good news is that their unimproved post-flop weakness is so obvious that even bad players are usually willing to throw them away, something that can't always be said of...

>> Middle pairs (6-6, 7-7, and 8-8)
For the most part, these hands play like small pairs. The biggest difference is that they don't get counterfeited nearly as often, and occasionally in heads-up confrontations, you will find yourself facing only one overcard instead of two. Otherwise, these hands can be more troublesome than small pairs, especially if the board comes low - 10-4-2, for instance. A player holding pocket 8s will often think 'only one overcard hit, I might be leading,' and bet aggressively, not realising he is up against someone who has that one overcard or someone who is tentatively calling with a hand like 9-9. Normally, unless you flop a set or a good straight draw (that is, the board is 4-5-6 and you have 7-7), you should get out.

>> Danger pairs (9-9, 10-10)
Much like middle pairs, but occasionally will hold up against an opponent who has hit part of his hand (like someone playing A-8 suited who hits the 8). Should be played like middle pairs, but you will very rarely get counterfeited. I call them danger pairs because players tend to push them too hard.

Royal couples

>> J-J:
The single trickiest hand in no-limit. It wins just enough without improvement to give its owner confidence, yet is extremely vulnerable in multi-way situations. If you are facing all three overcards, you are a significant underdog. Just how big varies: you're far better off being up against A-K and K-Q (winning about 43%) than against A-K and Q-10 (winning about 37%), because of the lack of duplication. One trick to avoid getting into trouble with J-J is to pretend it's 8-8. You'll only play it hard in favourable post-flop situations, and won't try to beat the world with it, pre-flop.

>> Q-Q:
The third best starting hand in Holdem should be played aggressively. The problem in low-limit games is you won't just be up against one player holding A-K: You'll be up against K-10 here and A-9 there, and that's much less favourable than facing a solitary A-K. In no-limit, what sort of hands will you face heavy action with? Bluffs, the occasional person overplaying a smaller pair or A-Q, A-K. . . and K-K or A-A, where you're a 9/2 underdog. It's often best to make a significant but not full-commitment raise and wait to see if the flop contains an Ace or King. If you're in a tournament, and someone raises up front, someone else moves in on him, and someone else calls the all-in bet, unless at least one of the all-in players was short stacked, your Queens belong in the muck. Ditto for any situation where someone seems unafraid of multiple opponents.

>> K-K:
'Cowboys' are a terrific hand and worth playing quite strongly. They do belong a full level below Aces, though, because even some rookie playing A-3 has a 30% chance to beat you with his overcard. In a low-limit, multi-way pot, if an Ace flops, your Kings are essentially doomed; only in high-limit games where players will throw hands like A-9 away do you have a chance, and even then, it's probably worth not bothering until you're an advanced player. Try to avoid going on tilt when the Kings get beaten, because players hold singleton Aces a lot and 30% chances aren't insignificant.

Aces in the hole

>> A-A:
'Pocket rockets' are much better than Kings because you can't be facing an overcard. One key in playing Aces correctly lies in knowing when to get away from them. In low-limit, multi-way games, you should figure that two red aces are toast when the flop comes 9s-10s-Js; in other words, beware extremely coordinated flops. Don't get stubborn. A lot of no-limit players like to limp with Aces, hoping that someone else will raise, and then they can re-raise. This is dangerous. If five people wind up limping, you have no idea where you are after the flop. You raise a lot with other hands and get re-raised; why not raise with this one, and hope you get re-raised here? If everyone folds and you just win the blinds, that's unfortunate, but not as unfortunate as losing your whole stack because you let someone in too cheaply and only bet heavily once his hand became well defined.